Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
